We make decisions under the belief that we've weighed all of the risks and benefits carefully, but our judgments aren’t always as sound as we think. We misjudge the level of risk we’re taking all the time, especially when we’re under stress or don’t have enough information. One reason for these mistakes could be a set of thinking errors called cognitive distortions. Here's why this happens.
How many people would choose a small prize that was a sure bet over a 50:50 chance at something far greater? How does the feel of those odds change when the value of each prize is moved higher or lower? Researchers at New York University and Peking University (Beijing) set out to analyze the different ways we judge risk and probability, and they found our perceptions of risk can vary greatly from person to person, sometimes in confusing ways. They published their findings in the National Academy of Sciences.
According to the article, we magnify and underestimate personal risk more than we realize, and for different reasons. One biggie is our own limitations. It might not come as a surprise that the less we know about a subject, the more we might misjudge its associated risks, but how much we misjudge them is where things get interesting.
Consider the lifetime odds of dying in a car accident (1 in 608) versus the lifetime odds of dying in an airplane crash (1 in 11,175). Even knowing the odds, which mode of transportation would most of us feel safer taking? How many of us would take a car over an airplane if someone told us one of the two was doomed to crash? As much as most people would like to say they’d take the airplane, faulty judgment might still leave many of us crashing in the car.
One way to explain our lapses in judgment could involve what experts call cognitive distortions. These mental blips often occur when people need to make decisions under stress or fall into knee-jerk reactions, but they can also reflect distorted core beliefs. There are 10 main variations, each affecting judgment from a different angle:
We make rational decisions every day, but we also fall victim to distortions that can make faulty choices look sounder than they are. Seeing them from an inward view isn’t always so simple, but knowing these thinking errors exist is half the battle. Having a better understanding of our limitations might help us approach big or stressful decisions with greater perspective, or at least give us the insight to take a step back and more carefully consider our options.
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